SCB

On April 21, 2025, the U.S. imposed high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Thai solar panel exports, leading to anticipated declines in Thailand’s market share. To mitigate impacts, manufacturers should diversify markets and adapt strategies amid changing trade dynamics.

The MPC cut Thailand’s policy rate by 0.25% to 1.75% due to economic slowdown risks from U.S. trade policies and lower tourism. Economic growth projections are weakened under two scenarios, emphasizing the need for accommodative monetary policy amidst global trade tensions.

In March 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged 17.8% YOY to USD 29.5 billion, driven by strong electronics and gold sales. Despite growth, negative impacts from US tariffs loom ahead, with potential export contractions of 0.4% predicted for 2025.

The Mega Earthquake on March 28 has affected Thailand’s tourism sector, resulting in canceled hotel bookings and decreased advance bookings for the Songkran festival. Foreign tourist numbers are projected to decline, with potential revenue losses. Restoring confidence and implementing stimulus measures are crucial for recovery.

SCB EIC estimates the recent earthquake has a limited impact on the Thai economy, mainly affecting tourism, real estate, and construction sectors. International tourist numbers may decline, real estate transactions may be delayed, but construction activities are expected to continue. Restoring confidence is crucial for long-term recovery.

Thai merchandise exports in February 2025 increased by 14.0%YOY to USD 26,707.1 million, aligning with expectations. Gold exports played a significant role in this growth. Imports expanded by 4.0%YOY to USD 24,718.9 million, with a surplus of USD 1,988.3 million. Overall, Thai exports are expected to slow in the second half of the year due to global economic conditions and trade policies.

The Bank of Thailand has temporarily relaxed Loan-to-Value regulations to support the real estate sector, allowing 100% LTV ratios for housing loans under certain conditions. SCB EIC sees this as part of broader efforts to ease financial conditions, aiding housing sales but expecting limited impact. Additional government measures may further support the market.

President Trump’s second term brings global uncertainty with policy shifts in trade, investment, and international relations reshaping the global order. SCB EIC predicts U.S. tariff hikes, potentially leading to a new wave of global trade wars impacting the economy. Thailand faces challenges from U.S. protectionist measures and stagnant economic recovery. SCB EIC recommends short and long-term strategies for economic transformation and suggests Thai businesses adapt with a 4P strategy.