SCB

Thai exports surged in April 2026, reaching USD 31.6 billion, up 23.1%, driven by strong electronic goods and agricultural exports. Imports also rose significantly, leading to a record trade deficit of USD 10 billion. Revised export growth forecast is 7.8%.

Moody’s affirms Thailand’s credit rating at Baa1, upgrading the outlook to “Stable” due to reduced economic risks, improved investment prospects, and less political volatility. Future ratings depend on fiscal reforms, transparency, and strategic spending to bolster economic growth and stability.

The MPC maintained the policy rate at 1%, citing the impact of the Middle East war on the Thai economy. Inflation is expected to temporarily rise before returning to target next year. Rate adjustments will depend on forthcoming data and war developments.

In March 2026, Thai exports rose 18.7% to USD 35.2 billion, driven by electronics and increased shipments to the US. However, exports to the Middle East plummeted 57.1%. Imports surged 35.7%, leading to a larger trade deficit projected to worsen.

In Q4-2025, Thailand’s household debt grew 0.05% YOY, reaching an 86.7% debt-to-GDP ratio, mainly due to personal consumption loans. Increasing reliance on savings cooperatives indicates tighter mainstream lending. Debt-servicing risks may rise amid job market fragility and inflationary pressures.

The Middle East conflict has sharply increased LNG prices due to supply disruptions, affecting electricity costs in Thailand. Restoration of damaged infrastructure may take 3-5 years, keeping prices elevated, while households and businesses must adapt to rising tariffs through energy efficiency and renewable sources.

SCB EIC has lowered Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.4% due to the Middle East conflict impacting energy prices. Inflation is expected to rise significantly, affecting consumption, tourism, and business investment, while risks of deficits grow amid economic uncertainty.

In February 2026, Thai exports grew 9.9% YoY to USD 29.4 billion, driven by electronics but down from 24.4% the previous month. Imports surged 31.8% YoY, reaching a 50-month high. The trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2.8 billion.