SCB

In March 2026, Thai exports rose 18.7% to USD 35.2 billion, driven by electronics and increased shipments to the US. However, exports to the Middle East plummeted 57.1%. Imports surged 35.7%, leading to a larger trade deficit projected to worsen.

In Q4-2025, Thailand’s household debt grew 0.05% YOY, reaching an 86.7% debt-to-GDP ratio, mainly due to personal consumption loans. Increasing reliance on savings cooperatives indicates tighter mainstream lending. Debt-servicing risks may rise amid job market fragility and inflationary pressures.

The Middle East conflict has sharply increased LNG prices due to supply disruptions, affecting electricity costs in Thailand. Restoration of damaged infrastructure may take 3-5 years, keeping prices elevated, while households and businesses must adapt to rising tariffs through energy efficiency and renewable sources.

SCB EIC has lowered Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.4% due to the Middle East conflict impacting energy prices. Inflation is expected to rise significantly, affecting consumption, tourism, and business investment, while risks of deficits grow amid economic uncertainty.

In February 2026, Thai exports grew 9.9% YoY to USD 29.4 billion, driven by electronics but down from 24.4% the previous month. Imports surged 31.8% YoY, reaching a 50-month high. The trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2.8 billion.

SCB EIC predicts a 2–6 week disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising Brent crude prices to USD 75/bbl. If conflict escalates, prices could hit USD 107/bbl, impacting global inflation, GDP, and Thailand’s economic growth.

The February 2026 Middle East conflict has disrupted Thailand’s energy-dependent economy, risking inflation from rising oil prices. Businesses and households will face higher costs, prompting policymakers to strengthen energy security and manage price pressures through strategic measures and long-term solutions.

The MPC cut the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.0% to ease financial conditions and support SMEs amid inflation risks. Despite expected economic growth at 2.0%, challenges persist, including tight credit for SMEs and a cautious approach toward low rates.