SCB

SCB EIC predicts a 2–6 week disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising Brent crude prices to USD 75/bbl. If conflict escalates, prices could hit USD 107/bbl, impacting global inflation, GDP, and Thailand’s economic growth.

The February 2026 Middle East conflict has disrupted Thailand’s energy-dependent economy, risking inflation from rising oil prices. Businesses and households will face higher costs, prompting policymakers to strengthen energy security and manage price pressures through strategic measures and long-term solutions.

The MPC cut the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.0% to ease financial conditions and support SMEs amid inflation risks. Despite expected economic growth at 2.0%, challenges persist, including tight credit for SMEs and a cautious approach toward low rates.

In December 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged 16.8% YOY to USD 28.8 billion, driven by strong demand for electronics and gold, particularly in the US market. Imports also rose 18.8%, leading to a trade deficit. 2025’s overall export growth was 12.9%.

Recent crane collapses in Thailand have eroded public confidence in construction safety. Enhancing regulatory oversight, adopting advanced technologies, and ensuring quality in bidding processes are vital steps needed to improve safety and restore trust in infrastructure projects.

The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on specific AI chips starting January 15, 2026, to boost domestic manufacturing. This decision impacts the global semiconductor supply chain, affecting trade and investment in Thailand’s electronics industry, necessitating strategic adjustments.

CLMV economic growth is projected to slow to 5.6% in 2026 due to U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties. Domestic demand offers limited support amid structural challenges. Vietnam sustains robust growth, while Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar face specific risks. Trade and investment will moderate in 2026.

In November 2025, Thai merchandise exports reached USD 27.4 billion, growing 7.1% YOY, impacted by a slowdown in electronic and gold exports. Merchandise imports surged 17.6% YOY, leading to a trade deficit of USD 2.7 billion, signaling potential future contraction for exports.