SCB

Recent crane collapses in Thailand have eroded public confidence in construction safety. Enhancing regulatory oversight, adopting advanced technologies, and ensuring quality in bidding processes are vital steps needed to improve safety and restore trust in infrastructure projects.

The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on specific AI chips starting January 15, 2026, to boost domestic manufacturing. This decision impacts the global semiconductor supply chain, affecting trade and investment in Thailand’s electronics industry, necessitating strategic adjustments.

CLMV economic growth is projected to slow to 5.6% in 2026 due to U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties. Domestic demand offers limited support amid structural challenges. Vietnam sustains robust growth, while Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar face specific risks. Trade and investment will moderate in 2026.

In November 2025, Thai merchandise exports reached USD 27.4 billion, growing 7.1% YOY, impacted by a slowdown in electronic and gold exports. Merchandise imports surged 17.6% YOY, leading to a trade deficit of USD 2.7 billion, signaling potential future contraction for exports.

The MPC unanimously cut the policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% to address economic slowdown and debt burdens. Future adjustments will consider inflation and stability, with concerns over deflation risks, credit contraction, and the appreciating Thai baht affecting financial conditions.

The global economy is slowing, with a projected growth of 2.3% in 2025-2026, affected by trade tensions and uncertainty. Thailand’s growth may drop to 1.4% in 2026, influenced by weak exports, investment delays, and rising geopolitical risks.

Recent severe flooding in Hat Yai highlights Thailand’s unpreparedness for climate change, exacerbating flooding and droughts. With increased rainfall extremes, rising sea levels, and heightened water demands, urgent investments in water management and infrastructure are crucial to safeguard communities and the economy.

In October 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports valued at USD 28.8 billion grew 5.7% YOY, below expectations. Electronics and US shipments drove growth, while gold exports sharply declined. Imports surged, causing a significant trade deficit of USD 3.4 billion.