Abstract
In October 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD 28.8 billion, slowing to 5.7% year-over-year growth from 19% the previous month, notably below expectations. Electronics and exports to the US were robust, rising 29.1%, while gold exports fell sharply by 76.9%, contributing negatively to overall export growth. Imports surged to USD 32.3 billion, driven by raw materials, leading to a significant trade deficit of USD 3.4 billion. For 2025, export growth forecasts were revised up to 10.7%, though a 1.5% contraction is expected in 2026 due to economic slowdowns and increased competition.
Summary
Thai Merchandise Exports in October 2025
In October 2025, Thai merchandise exports valued at USD 28.8 billion showed a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, a decline from 19.0% in September and below the estimated 9%. Seasonally adjusted figures indicated a 1.9% month-on-month contraction, contrasting with the previous month’s growth. However, exports during the first ten months of the year experienced a robust overall increase of 13.0%.
Key Drivers and Challenges
Electronics exports, particularly to the US, were crucial for maintaining growth, recording a remarkable rise of 29.1% despite existing tariff measures. Notably, exports of electronic products grew by 38.8%. Still, gold exports significantly hampered overall performance, contracting by 76.9%, attributed to declining global prices and reduced demand.
Trade Imbalance and Future Projections
In contrast, merchandise imports sharply rose to USD 32.3 billion, resulting in Thailand’s highest trade deficit in nearly three years. The 16.3% increase in imports exceeded expectations, with raw materials driving much of this growth. Looking ahead, SCB EIC projected an export growth revision to 10.7% for 2025, while anticipating a contraction of 1.5% in 2026 due to a slowing global economy and increased competition from Chinese goods.
