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Economy
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Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 86.7% at end-2025, while a fragile labour market and elevated living cost…
In Q4-2025, Thailand’s household debt grew 0.05% YOY, reaching an 86.7% debt-to-GDP ratio, mainly due to personal consumption loans. Increasing reliance on savings cooperatives indicates tighter mainstream lending. Debt-servicing risks may rise amid job market fragility and inflationary pressures.
Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Energy Markets: Prolonged High Natural Gas Prices to Keep Electricity Costs Elevate…
The Middle East conflict has sharply increased LNG prices due to supply disruptions, affecting electricity costs in Thailand. Restoration of damaged infrastructure may take 3-5 years, keeping prices elevated, while households and businesses must adapt to rising tariffs through energy efficiency and renewable sources.
Outlook quarter 1/2026
SCB EIC has lowered Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.4% due to the Middle East conflict impacting energy prices. Inflation is expected to rise significantly, affecting consumption, tourism, and business investment, while risks of deficits grow amid economic uncertainty.
Exports in February 2026 slowed, while imports accelerated to the highest level in 50 months; monitoring the impacts of …
In February 2026, Thai exports grew 9.9% YoY to USD 29.4 billion, driven by electronics but down from 24.4% the previous month. Imports surged 31.8% YoY, reaching a 50-month high. The trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2.8 billion.
The Global and Thai Economies Amid the Uncertainty of the Middle East War
SCB EIC predicts a 2–6 week disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising Brent crude prices to USD 75/bbl. If conflict escalates, prices could hit USD 107/bbl, impacting global inflation, GDP, and Thailand’s economic growth.
Thailand on Inflation Watch from The Middle East Conflict
The February 2026 Middle East conflict has disrupted Thailand’s energy-dependent economy, risking inflation from rising oil prices. Businesses and households will face higher costs, prompting policymakers to strengthen energy security and manage price pressures through strategic measures and long-term solutions.
The MPC cut the policy rate to 1%, ahead of market expectations: signals a prolonged low-rate stance, with further easin…
The MPC cut the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.0% to ease financial conditions and support SMEs amid inflation risks. Despite expected economic growth at 2.0%, challenges persist, including tight credit for SMEs and a cautious approach toward low rates.
Thai exports grew strongly by 12.9% in 2025, while export growth in 2026 is expected to slow considerably, weighed down …
In December 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged 16.8% YOY to USD 28.8 billion, driven by strong demand for electronics and gold, particularly in the US market. Imports also rose 18.8%, leading to a trade deficit. 2025’s overall export growth was 12.9%.
