Abstract
Under the base case, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may last 2–6 weeks, pushing Brent crude oil prices to USD 75/bbl, with global inflation rising by 0.4 percentage points and a potential GDP decline of 0.2–0.4 pp. In a worst-case scenario of regional war, prices could soar to USD 107/bbl. Thailand’s economy may slow by 0.3–0.8 pp, with inflation expected to rise to 1.5% or possibly above 4% amid escalated tensions. The business sector faces risks in energy, transportation, and costs, although some agricultural sectors may benefit.
Summary
Shipping Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
SCB EIC predicts significant disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, lasting between 2 to 6 weeks. This comes as some energy infrastructure may face attacks, pushing Brent crude oil prices up to USD 75 per barrel. If tensions escalate into a wider regional conflict, prices could spike further to USD 107 per barrel.
Global Economic Challenges
The ongoing conflict poses serious risks to the global economy. With Brent crude averaging USD 75 per barrel this year, inflation might increase by 0.4 percentage points and global GDP could decrease by 0.2–0.4 percentage points. This inflation spike may prompt central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to adopt a more cautious monetary policy stance.
Impact on Thailand’s Economy
Thailand could see economic growth slow by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points in 2026, depending on oil price scenarios. Rising global energy prices may push inflation back to the target range of 1–3% sooner, but in a worst-case scenario, it could surpass 4%. Thai businesses might face disruption from rising energy costs and travel safety concerns, though some sectors may benefit from increased demand.
Source : The Global and Thai Economies Amid the Uncertainty of the Middle East War
