Abstract
The global economy is projected to slow, with growth dropping to 2.3% in 2025-2026, hindered by trade wars and policy uncertainty. U.S. tariffs are expected to impact both growth and inflation, while other nations face demand-side pressures. Thailand’s growth may remain below 2%, influenced by global trade slowdowns and local structural issues. Despite financial market volatility and geopolitical risks, certain Thai businesses may find opportunities by adapting to emerging consumer trends. Overall, a cautious financial environment persists amidst ongoing economic challenges.
Summary
Global Economic Outlook
The global economy is projected to decelerate through 2026, with SCB EIC forecasting growth to drop to 2.3%, down from 2.8% in the preceding year. Heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs, are impacting economic stability. The U.S. experiences this shock on the supply side, while other countries face demand pressures leading to weaker exports and reduced inflation. This uncertainty has resulted in decreased investment and consumption due to shaky business and household confidence.
Thailand’s Economic Challenges
Thailand’s economy is expected to grow minimally, with projections at 1.5% for this year and 1.4% in 2026. Factors contributing to this subdued growth include ongoing trade tensions, structural challenges in the SME sector, and a slowing tourism sector. The anticipated fiscal stimulus may provide limited support, as public debt approaches 70% of GDP, which could inhibit future fiscal measures. Moreover, inflation remains negative amid low domestic purchasing power, although some upward movement is expected later in the year.
Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty
Despite these challenges, specific segments within the Thai business landscape show promise. Adaptation to emerging consumer trends can unlock growth, especially for businesses in health, wellness, and sustainability. Understanding these dynamics will be crucial for navigating the complex economic environment ahead. Firms that innovate and target high-potential market segments could find opportunities even during difficult times, ensuring some resilience amidst broader uncertainties.
Source : Outlook quarter 2/2025
