SCB

Donald Trump wins U.S. presidential election with Republican majority in House and Senate. Trump’s policies focus on trade protectionism, immigration restrictions, and energy security. IMF predicts global economic impact with increased tariffs, reduced investment, and tighter financial conditions. Thailand’s economy faces downside risks due to decreased exports and investment under Trump 2.0 policies.

Thai exports in September 2024 grew by 1.1%YOY, slower than previous months and below analysts’ expectations. Three out of four major categories experienced slower growth, with mining and fuel products contracting. Exports to the US and CLMV markets expanded, while imports increased, leading to a trade surplus.

Thai exports in August 2024 grew by 7%YOY to USD 26,182.3 million, exceeding expectations. Factors driving growth included computers, rubber, rice, and gold. Trade balance turned positive, defying expectations, with import growth slower than anticipated. SCB EIC forecasts continued export growth for the year, but challenges remain for future export growth.

Global economic growth is expected to slow in the latter half of 2024, but a soft landing is likely due to factors like interest rate reductions and strong momentum in major economies. Thailand’s economy is forecasted to grow modestly, with challenges in industries like automotive and SMEs.

The MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.50% with one member advocating for a cut. The Thai economy is growing as expected, but there are concerns about weakening domestic demand. SCB EIC predicts rate cuts in late 2024 and early 2025 to support the economy amidst tightening financial conditions.

Thai exports showed signs of recovery in December 2023, with a 4.7%YOY increase at USD 22,791.6 million. However, factors like gold exports and special circumstances played roles. SCB EIC predicts a 3.7% growth trend in 2024 but warns of risks from global supply chain disruptions.

Thai exports in June 2024 contracted by -0.3% compared to the previous year due to a decrease in fruits exports to China. Exports of agro-industrial and agricultural products also declined, while exports to key partners, impacted by gold exports, showed mixed results. The trade balance recorded a slight surplus in June, with expectations of export improvement in July and the second half of the year. SCB EIC anticipates a 2.6% expansion in Thai exports for 2024 and similar growth expected in 2025.

Thai exports in June 2024 declined by -0.3%YOY, with a notable decrease in fruit exports to China due to drought conditions. Agro-industrial and agricultural products saw contractions, while key partners, such as Hong Kong and Japan, also experienced declines. SCB EIC projects a 2.6% expansion in Thai exports for 2024.