SCB

The BIAC General Assembly 2025 in Paris focused on global business challenges. Thailand’s JSCCIB attended as an observer member, emphasizing the importance of OECD cooperation. Recommendations included enhancing competitiveness, promoting innovation, and fostering open markets. Thailand aims to align with OECD standards to strengthen its economy.

The MPC lowered the policy interest rate to 2.0% due to weaker-than-expected economic growth in Thailand, particularly in the manufacturing sector facing competition from foreign goods. Downside risks also stem from U.S. trade policies. Tight financial conditions and lower GDP growth projections for 2025 were noted.

Thai exports in December 2024 grew by 8.7%, exceeding expectations and driven by various factors like concerns over U.S. trade tariffs. Overall, exports in 2024 saw a significant improvement of 5.4%, with strong growth in the second half of the year. Future export growth in 2025 may face challenges due to global economic slowdown and trade protectionist policies.

SCB EIC predicts CLMV economies to slow down in 2025 due to global economic factors and Trump 2.0 policies, but domestic demand and ASEAN growth will support growth. Country-specific factors will shape economic prospects, with Vietnam expected to have the strongest growth. Trade and investment between Thailand and CLMV are also expected to increase.

The MPC maintained the policy rate at 2.25%, aligning with SCB EIC’s projections. Economic challenges are expected to increase due to global competition and uncertainties from major economies. Inflation is projected to return to the target range. The MPC shows limited concern over credit growth slowdown.

Thai exports in November grew by 8.2%, reaching USD 25.6 billion, exceeding forecasts. Exports were driven by electronics demand, high gold exports, and recovery in certain manufacturing sectors. Exports to China increased significantly, but overall export markets slowed down. Thailand’s trade balance returned to a deficit and SCB EIC projects continued export growth for 2024, but challenges may arise in 2025 due to trade wars.

SCB EIC downgraded the global economic forecast for 2025 due to geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism by Trump 2.0. Uncertain monetary policies are expected, with the US Fed being cautious. Thailand’s economy may expand in Q4 but face challenges from Trump 2.0 in the second half of 2025.

Thai exports in October 2024 grew robustly by 14.6%, reaching USD 27,222.1 million and exceeding analyst expectations. Key drivers include gold exports, an upswing in the electronics sector, and growth in major markets such as the U.S., European Union, India, and Japan. Trade balance returned to deficit.