Abstract
In November, Thai exports grew by 8.2%, reaching USD 25.6 billion. Key factors included an uptick in electronics demand and high gold exports. Exports to China expanded, while major markets like the US and Europe slowed. Thailand’s trade balance returned to a deficit. SCB EIC projects strong export growth for 2024 but warns of challenges in 2025 due to trade war impacts, particularly from US import tariffs under Trump 2.0. They predict 2025 growth to slow to 2%, urging preparation for increasing external pressures.
Summary
Thai Exports in November Continue to Grow by 8.2%
In November, the value of Thai exports reached USD 25.6 billion, growing by 8.2% year-on-year (YOY), exceeding SCB EIC’s earlier forecast of 6.5%. Exports still expanded by 6.4% excluding gold. For the first 11 months of 2024, total Thai exports amounted to USD 275.8 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.1% based on customs data.
November Exports Driven by All Categories Except Mining and Fuel Products
The breakdown by product category shows industrial products grew by 9.5%, while agro-industrial products and agricultural products also showed growth. However, mining and fuel products continued to contract, recording a decline of -7.1%, mainly due to a drop in exports of refined oil.
Exports to China Expanded Considerably, While Most Major Export Markets Slowed Down
Key export markets, including China, the United States, Europe, Japan, and Switzerland, saw varying growth rates in November. Thailand’s trade balance returned to a deficit after three consecutive months of surplus, with imports growing by 0.9% in November. SCB EIC projects that Thai exports could exceed 4% growth for 2024 if December figures remain strong.
