Abstract
In October 2024, Thai exports grew by 14.6%, surpassing expectations with a total value of USD 27,222.1 million. Exports were driven by strong performance in industrial goods, electronics, and gold. Key markets like the U.S., European Union, and India showed significant growth, while the trade balance returned to a deficit. SCB EIC revised their export forecast for 2024 to 3.9% but downgraded the projection for 2025 due to global economic uncertainties, including the potential impact of “Trump 2.0” policies on trade.
Summary
Robust Growth in October 2024 Exports
In October 2024, Thai exports reached USD 27,222.1 million, growing by 14.6% YoY, surpassing expectations set by analysts. This growth was mainly driven by a surge in gold exports, an upswing in the electronics sector, and a favorable low base effect, pushing the cumulative export value for the first 10 months of the year to USD 250,398 million.
Thailand’s exports were led by industrial goods in October, with significant expansions in key sectors like unwrought gold, electronics, and machinery. However, mining and fuel products saw a contraction, showing a -22.2% decline.
Market Expansion and Return to Trade Deficit
Exports to major markets, including the U.S., European Union, Indian, and Japanese markets, continued to grow steadily, impacting Thailand’s trade balance. The value of imports in October surged by 15.9%, resulting in a trade deficit of USD -794.3 million after two months of surplus.
Export Forecast Revision by SCB EIC
SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2024 export growth forecast upwards to 3.9% due to strong realized data and global economic trends. However, the projection for 2025 has been downgraded to 2.0% based on anticipated changes, including heightened global risks and trade conditions influenced by policies like “Trump 2.0.”
