Abstract
CLMV economic growth is projected to moderate to 5.6% in 2026, down from 6.4% in 2025, due to elevated U.S. tariffs and global economic slowdown. While domestic demand offers some support, challenges like high non-performing loans and political instability persist in Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Myanmar. Vietnam is expected to continue outperforming with robust growth driven by strong FDI and reforms. Regional trade and investment will slow, influenced by rising uncertainty and structural vulnerabilities, while selective opportunities remain in certain sectors.
Summary
CLMV Growth Moderates in 2026
SCB EIC forecasts CLMV economic growth will slow to 5.6% in 2026, down from 6.4% in 2025. This decline is attributed to the full impact of elevated U.S. tariffs and a global economic slowdown. Trade-dependent economies face mounting pressures due to tariff risks and potential import flooding from China, further threatening their export momentum.
Domestic Resilience and Structural Challenges
While domestic consumption may cushion some external pressures, significant structural vulnerabilities persist. Increasing non-performing loans (NPLs) and political uncertainties in Cambodia and Myanmar hinder recovery. Vietnam stands out with robust growth driven by strong FDI inflows and effective government reforms, demonstrating an uneven economic landscape across the region.
Trade Dynamics and Future Outlook
Trade between Thailand and CLMV is anticipated to decelerate, impacted by weak regional demand and political risks. Despite the challenges, selective investment opportunities exist in sectors leveraging geographic advantages and cost competitiveness. Overall, while growth is moderating, CLMV economies are projected to maintain positive, albeit slower, growth in 2026.
Source : SCB EIC expects slower CLMV growth in 2026 amid U.S. tariff pressures and domestic challenges
