Abstract
President Trump’s return for a second term has increased global uncertainty, with trade policies set to reshape the global order. There may be reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S., potentially leading to a new wave of trade wars that could impact the global economy. Thailand faces challenges from U.S. protectionist measures, with SCB EIC projecting a slight economic slowdown. Thai businesses are advised to adapt through the 4P strategy to navigate these challenges and enhance their competitiveness. The full report will provide further insights.
Summary
The Impact of President Trump’s Second Term on Global Economy
President Trump’s second term has brought heightened global uncertainty, with policies set to reshape trade, investment, and international relations. These shifts will pressure the global economy, impacting business decision-making worldwide. SCB EIC predicts that amid unpredictable policy changes by the U.S., reciprocal tariffs will replace universal tariffs. This may target specific products or countries, potentially escalating trade wars and affecting global GDP and inflation.
Global Economic Outlook and Policy Measures
SCB EIC forecasts a slight global economic slowdown to 2.6% this year due to escalating trade wars. Countries are implementing economic stimulus measures, with the Eurozone and China adopting expansionary fiscal policies. Monetary policies among major economies will diverge, with the U.S. Fed expected to cut interest rates, the ECB to reduce rates aggressively, and the BOJ to raise rates to support inflation targets.
Thailand’s Economic Challenges and Recovery Strategies
SCB EIC maintains Thailand’s economic growth forecast at 2.4%, citing a slow recovery amidst external pressures and structural weaknesses. A K-shaped recovery is expected, with challenges in business, labor, household sectors, and fiscal constraints. The MPC may cut interest rates further to support the economy amid tight financial conditions and U.S. protectionist measures, requiring Thailand to strengthen internally for long-term growth.
Source : Outlook quarter1/2025
