Abstract
On April 21, 2025, the U.S. imposed significant anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Thai solar panels, with rates soaring from preliminary estimates to between 375.19% and 972.23%. This spike resulted from a surge in Thai exports, primarily influenced by relocations of Chinese manufacturers amid fears of tariff circumvention. Consequently, Thailand’s U.S. market share plummeted from 28% to 6% in early 2025, leading to a 52% year-on-year export decline. SCB EIC predicts near-zero exports by 2026 unless Thai manufacturers diversify markets and revenue streams.
Summary
Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Thai Solar Exports
On April 21, 2025, the U.S. confirmed substantial anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on solar panel imports from Thailand. This decision followed a dramatic increase of over 47 times in Thai solar exports since 2015, fueled by Chinese manufacturers relocating to Thailand. The U.S. suspected this was a strategy to sidestep existing tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting investigations starting in April 2024.
The final AD/CVD rates for Thailand, reaching as high as 972.23%, significantly surpassed initial rates and threaten to decimate its solar export industry, which relies heavily on the U.S. market for 90% of its revenue. Following the implementation of preliminary tariffs, Thailand’s market share in the U.S. plummeted from 28% to just 6% within months, with solar panel export values contracting by 52%.
To mitigate these challenges, Thai manufacturers can adapt by becoming midstream component suppliers, diversifying export markets, and expanding into clean energy production. Moreover, the Thai government should enhance investment promotion policies to comply with evolving international trade standards, ensuring long-term viability amid global trade tensions.
