Abstract
In March 2025, Thai merchandise exports surged 17.8% year-over-year to USD 29.55 billion, the highest growth in three years, driven by preemptive shipments before US tariffs and a strong electronics sector. Exports to the US jumped 34.3%, while those to China rose 22.2%. Gold exports soared 269.5%, despite signs of a slowdown in gold alloy exports to India. In contrast, agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted. SCB EIC forecasts a potential export contraction of -0.4% for the year due to heightened global trade tensions.
Summary
Thai Merchandise Exports Surge in March 2025
In March 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports soared by 17.8% year-on-year, amounting to USD 29,548.25 million, marking the highest growth rate in three years. This performance surpasses prior forecasts, reflecting strong momentum from earlier months. The growth is attributed to increased production and shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs, alongside a positive cycle in the electronics sector.
Key Factors Driving Growth
Export dynamics reveal robust expansions, particularly to the U.S. and China. Exports to the U.S. increased by 34.3%, mainly driven by electronic products. Conversely, exports to Australia fell by 10.3%, with agricultural and agro-industrial products experiencing contractions. Gold exports remained essential, rising dramatically by 269.5%, influenced by global demand amid economic uncertainties.
Challenges Ahead for Thai Exports
While the first half of 2025 looks promising, SCB EIC forecasts a potential contraction of 0.4% in overall exports for the year, primarily due to looming trade wars and rising tariffs. With major markets exposed to risks, Thailand’s export landscape may face significant challenges in the second half, affecting growth prospects substantially.
