SCB

SCB EIC forecasts CLMV economies will slow to 5.1% growth in 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, with specific risks for Vietnam and Cambodia. Political instability and structural vulnerabilities also threaten Myanmar and Laos, while Thailand’s trade with CLMV softens amid uncertainties.

SCB EIC warns that U.S. retaliatory tariffs may harm Thailand’s economy by eroding market share for key exports, especially in agriculture and electronics. The government must balance tariff negotiations with potential risks to domestic producers, ensuring proper support for affected industries.

On June 24, 2025, Thailand’s Cabinet approved a tax deduction of up to 200,000 baht for residential solar rooftop installations. While the measure aims to promote solar energy investment, significant barriers like financing, trust, and permitting challenges still hinder adoption.

The MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 1.75%, citing effective past cuts and economic support needs. Thai GDP growth projections for 2025 are revised upward to 2.3% YOY, while inflation and credit growth concerns persist amid high uncertainty.

In May 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports surged 18.4% YOY to USD 31 billion, driven by electronic goods despite new U.S. tariffs. Imports also rose 18%, leading to a trade surplus. However, future export growth may face challenges from tariffs and global tensions.

On May 22, 2025, the EU designated Thailand as “low-risk” for deforestation under the EUDR, benefiting its agricultural exports by exempting them from complex compliance. This status enhances Thailand’s competitive edge in the EU market, particularly for rubber and palm oil.

June’s Pride Month celebrates diversity and equality, engaging over 450 million globally. With estimated spending of $3.7 trillion in 2023, economic opportunities grow. However, avoiding rainbow-washing is crucial as Thailand strives to become a premier Pride destination through genuine community support.

Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement may raise U.S. tariffs by 18-22%, severely impacting Thailand, which faces a 36% import tariff. This could harm Thailand’s economy, particularly exports, necessitating urgent negotiations to balance trade issues and protect national interests.