Abstract
In May 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports reached $31.04 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts significantly. Electronics exports surged by 50%, driven by front-loaded shipments before U.S. tariffs. However, growth in gold exports slowed. Imports also grew 18% to approximately $29.93 billion. Despite this positive momentum, SCB EIC expects a contraction in exports in the latter half due to rising U.S. tariffs, trade tensions, and potential geopolitical conflicts. Concerns over temporary factors and diminishing export growth are evident.
Summary
Record Growth in Thai Merchandise Exports
In May 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports surged 18.4% year-on-year, reaching a record USD 31,044.58 million. This performance surpassed forecasts by SCB EIC (9.0%) and the Reuters Poll median (6.7%). Overall, exports for the first five months of 2025 grew 14.9%. Seasonally adjusted figures indicate an 8.4% month-on-month increase, reflecting substantial growth momentum.
Electronics Driving Export Success
The boost in exports was largely fueled by preemptive shipments of electronic goods, despite new tariffs imposed by the U.S. Thai exports to the U.S. grew 35.1% in May, with electronics skyrocketing 50%. Exports to China and Hong Kong also thrived, highlighting the robust demand for electronics, which dominated 67.4% of total export value in May.
Import Expansion and Outlook
Thai merchandise imports for May reached USD 29,928.1 million, marking an 18.0% increase. This signifies an 11-month growth streak, supported by rising imports from China and Taiwan. However, the trade balance reported a surplus of USD 1,116.4 million amid expectations of a slowdown in the latter half of 2025 due to ongoing international trade tensions.
