Abstract
SCB EIC indicates that Trump’s import tariff announcement on April 2 could raise the U.S. effective tariff rate by 18–22%, impacting the U.S. economy and global trade significantly. Thailand could face a 36% import tariff, ranking it 20th globally and 10th in Asia. This steep rate is due to the U.S. trade deficit with Thailand. The Thai economy will be notably affected, especially in exports, and the government must urgently negotiate with the U.S. to lower tariffs and address trade barriers.
Summary
Impact of Trump’s Tariff Announcement
SCB EIC warns that Trump’s import tariff declared on April 2 could increase the U.S. effective tariff rate by 18–22%, posing a threat to both the U.S. economy and global trade dynamics. This escalation may heighten competition and create significant economic pressures worldwide.
Thailand is particularly vulnerable, facing an import tariff of 36%, placing it 20th among U.S. trade partners. This rate exceeds the global average of 16% and the Asian average of 21%, primarily due to the substantial trade deficit that the U.S. runs with Thailand.
The Thai economy is likely to suffer, especially concerning exports. With the U.S. as Thailand’s largest export market, the tariffs, combined with a potential slowdown in economies like China, could deter investors. To address this, the Thai government should prioritize negotiations that align with U.S. trade concerns, focusing on reducing trade surpluses and addressing non-tariff barriers.
