SCB

In Q4/2023, Thai economic growth was modest at 1.7% year-on-year, with a -0.6% quarter-on-quarter contraction. Services sector boosted by tourism, but public investment decreased. Q1/2024 expected to have higher growth due to private consumption and despite delays in public spending. Overall, slow economic recovery expected in 2024.

The MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.50 percent, projecting a slowdown in the Thai economy in 2024 due to softening global demand. Inflation is expected to remain low but gradually increase. The financial system is resilient, with stable overall financial conditions.

The MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.50 percent, projecting a slowdown in the Thai economy in 2024. Structural challenges and slower growth in China are contributing to the economic slowdown, with inflation levels staying low. Financial conditions remain stable, with some challenges for low-rated corporate bond issuers.

Thai exports showed a recovery in December 2023, with 5 consecutive months of growth and significant contributions from gold exports. Exports to certain key destinations contracted, and there was a trade surplus in December. SCB EIC anticipates continued export recovery in 2024, despite potential risks from global supply chain disruptions.

Thai export growth reached a 16-month high in October 2023, with 8%YOY increase totaling USD 23,578.8 million. Exports of key products and to key destinations improved. The trade returned to a deficit due to an increase in imports. SCB EIC expects a return to expansion in Q4/2023 and a 3.7% expansion in 2024.

Thai exports in November 2023 increased by 4.9% year over year, but this growth was influenced by the low base of November 2022. Overall, Thai exports declined by -2.7% month over month after a seasonal adjustment. Exports of key products and to various destinations improved, but the trade deficit continued as import growth outpaced exports. The forecast for 2023 Thai exports remains at a decline of -1.5% year over year, with expectations of a 3.7% growth in 2024. However, global supply chain disruptions are a potential risk.

Thai exports in November 2023 increased by 4.9%YOY, but this growth is mainly due to the low base effect from the previous year. Exports of key products and to key destinations improved, but the trade deficit continued. SCB EIC expects 2023 exports to drop by -1.5%YOY and to improve in 2024.

SCB EIC revised 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% due to lower Q3 GDP, government spending, and tourist arrivals. 2024 economy to grow at 3.0% with rising exports and private investment. Concerns about slow recovery and uncertainties. Proposes “four enhancing policies” to address structural issues.