Abstract
Thai exports showed signs of recovery in December 2023 with a 4.7%YOY increase, mainly due to gold exports. Excluding gold, export growth dropped to 3%YOY and 0.4%MOM_sa, reflecting an unclear recovery. Exports to Europe contracted due to attacks by Houthi rebels, while exports to the US stalled. Imports declined, leading to a surplus in December, but the overall 2023 trade balance remained at a deficit of USD -5,192.5 million. SCB EIC anticipates continued export recovery in 2024, despite potential risks from global supply chain disruptions.
Summary
Export Recovery in Thailand
Thai exports in December 2023 reached USD 22,791.6 million, with a 4.7%YOY and 1.6%MOM_sa increase. A 787.6% increase in gold exports greatly contributed to this growth, while excluding gold, Thai export growth dropped to 3%YOY and 0.4%MOM_sa. This reflects an unclear recovery in Thai exports due to special factors like low base, gold exports, and special-use automotive exports.
December Export Expansion
December saw exports of mining, fuel products, and manufacturing and agro-industrial products expand. However, exports of agricultural products reverted to a contraction after five months of growth, while exports to Europe and the United States also saw varying performance.
Trade Balance and 2024 Outlook
December marks a surplus in Thai trade. SCB EIC anticipates a 3.7% export growth in 2024, driven by an improving global trade volume, growth in the international trade-related manufacturing sector, high export product prices, and promotion of Thai exports. However, global supply chain risks stemming from recent events may hinder the projected export growth.
