SCB

The Cabinet approved measures to boost the property sector in 2024, including reducing transfer and mortgage fees for residential properties valued under 7 million baht. The revised registration fee reduction measure is expected to stimulate demand but overall market demand may remain sluggish due to household debts and high interest rates. Developers are advised to launch new mid-priced projects cautiously to avoid oversupply.

Thai exports in March 2024 declined by -10.9% YOY, primarily due to a drop in gold exports. Key product categories weakened, except for agricultural products. Exports to key destinations dropped, with a trade deficit persisting. SCB EIC expects export growth to turn positive in 2024.

The majority of the MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.50%, citing the need to safeguard macro-financial stability despite concerns about household debt. Two members wanted to cut the rate by 0.25% to address lower growth and debt burdens. The MPC projects increased economic growth and inflation in the coming years, noting ongoing challenges and uncertainties.

Thailand has faced droughts and floods, impacting agriculture and the economy. SCB EIC predicts losses of THB 50,000 million due to extreme weather events in 2023. To enhance water security, 2 approaches and 3 mechanisms are suggested, focusing on improving water supply and use efficiency. Collaboration among stakeholders is crucial for success.

Thai export recovery slowed in February 2024, with only a 3.6% increase in exports. Gold exports surged, but excluding gold, exports grew by 1.2%. Imports also increased, resulting in a deficit. March may see a decline in exports due to high base effect. Thai exports need to adapt to global demand changes.

CLMV economic growth is projected to accelerate in 2024, driven by recovery in exports and tourism, bolstering domestic demand. Multinational enterprises are seeking to diversify their manufacturing bases in CLMV countries to mitigate geopolitical risks, which will help boost FDI. Economic recovery varies across countries, with challenges such as high public debt in Lao PDR and political unrest in Myanmar. CLMV local currencies may face softer downward pressures in 2024, with anticipated rate cuts in major economies attracting capital inflows. CLMV-Thailand trade and investment are expected to recover, supported by global trade improvement and easing financial conditions. SCB EIC remains positive about the long-term outlook for CLMV economies, attracting both Thai and foreign investors due to a young workforce, free trade agreements, and strategic location.

SCB EIC revises Thai economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7% due to manufacturing sector challenges. Structural issues hinder recovery trajectory, impacting export competitiveness. Potential GDP growth declines to 2.7% long-term. Policy rate cuts expected by MPC to 2% in H1/2024 to support neutral monetary policy stance.

SCB EIC forecasts global economy to grow by 2.6% in 2024 with positive momentum in Q4 2023. Central banks worldwide will adjust policies. Thailand’s economic growth revised to 2.7%, facing challenges in the manufacturing sector. Policy rate in Thailand to be lowered to 2% in response to structural challenges.