Abstract
SCB EIC expects global economy growth to be 2.6% in 2024 with positive momentum. The service sector shows growth while manufacturing rebounds. Major economies’ central banks will pivot monetary policies. In Thailand, growth is forecast at 2.7% due to tourism and service sector. Challenges include high inventory and structural issues in manufacturing. Inflation may return to positive. Thailand must address manufacturing challenges for long-term growth. The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to lower rates, supporting economic sentiment. Thailand faces challenges in modernizing supply chains for export competitiveness.
Summary
Global Economic Outlook for 2024
SCB EIC projects the global economy to expand by 2.6% in 2024, similar to the previous year, boosted by strong momentum in Q4/2023 and positive economic activities in early 2024. Improvements in the service sector and signs of manufacturing rebound indicate a brighter outlook. Global trade conditions and easing inflation pressures are expected to drive economic growth, although challenges such as high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions persist due to recent crises and environmental factors.
Monetary Policies in Major Economies
Central banks in key economies are anticipated to adjust their policies in Q2/2024. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England are likely to cut rates, while the Bank of Japan may increase rates after a prolonged period of negatives. The People’s Bank of China is expected to maintain an accommodative stance to support economic recovery amidst uncertainties.
Thai Economic Outlook for 2024
Despite challenges, Thailand’s economy is forecasted to grow by 2.7% in 2024, driven by tourism, service sector performance, and export-led activities. Public spending constraints and structural issues in manufacturing pose challenges, affecting long-term growth potential. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory, with policy rate cuts anticipated to support economic sentiment and debt burden alleviation. To enhance competitiveness, Thailand must address manufacturing sector challenges and align with modern supply chain trends for sustainable growth.
Source : Outlook Quarter 1/2024
