Abstract
Thai exports in November 2023 increased by 4.9% compared to the previous year. However, this growth is not indicative of a genuine recovery in export conditions, as it is mainly due to the low base effect from November 2022. Exports of key products and to key destinations improved, but the trade deficit continued due to import growth outpacing exports. The overall trade balance for the first 11 months of 2023 was at a deficit of USD -6,165.3 million. SCB EIC expects export values to continue improving, with particular strength in food, beverages, electronics, and electrical appliances, though risks from global supply chain disruptions should be closely monitored.
Summary
Thai Export Conditions and Growth
The value of Thai exports in November 2023 stood at USD 24,379.7 million, increasing by 4.9%YOY for the fourth consecutive month. However, the growth was mainly influenced by the low base effect from November 2022, leading to a decline of -2.7% compared to the prior month after a seasonal adjustment. The sluggish export conditions were also reflected in the overall PMI for manufacturing, output, and export orders.
Improvement in Key Export Products
Thai exports of mining and fuel products, agricultural products, manufacturing products, and agro-industrial products all showed growth in November 2023. The 14-month track of diminishing exports to India, exports to key destinations such as the US and China displayed mixed growth rates. Exports to the US increased by 17.5%, while exports to China and India contracted.
Trade Deficit and Forecast
Thai imports grew by 10%YOY in November 2023, causing the customs basis trade balance to record a deficit of USD -2,399.4 million. SCB EIC predicts future export growth driven by exports of food, beverages, electronics, and electrical appliances. Despite this, global supply chain disruptions pose a risk to international trade, and Thai exports to Europe could be affected if these disruptions continue.
Source : Thai exports grew in November, albeit at a slower pace than imports.
