SCB

SCB EIC revised down 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% due to Q3 GDP, government spending, and lower tourist arrivals. 2024 economy to grow at 3.0% with expanding exports and private investment. Concerns about slow recovery, inflation, and global economy. Long-term issues include low investment and slow revenue recovery. Solutions proposed to address structural issues.

Thai exports in October reached a 16-month high, with a value of USD 23,578.8 million. Exports of key products increased across the board, and exports to key destinations improved. Thai trade returned to a deficit, and SCB EIC expects exports to expand in 2024 by 3.7%.

Steel industry must alter production methods to reduce GHG emissions and strive for carbon-neutral operation. Examples from Sweden and Luxembourg highlight use of green technology to produce fossil-free steel. Collaboration and government support are needed for advanced technology adoption in developing countries like Thailand.

The semiconductor industry is dealing with supply and demand imbalances due to increased demand and disruptions in the manufacturing supply chain. Countries are prioritizing securing chip manufacturing, and Thailand’s semiconductor industry holds potential for advancement. Companies need to collaborate, seek joint ventures, invest in research and development, and promote workforce skills development.

Thai exports increased for the second consecutive month, with the value reaching USD 25,476.3 million in September 2023. The growth is attributed to rising gold exports, improved economic conditions in China, and increased oil-related export product prices. Despite this, the overall trade balance for the first three quarters of 2023 remains at a deficit. The ongoing Israeli war may impact the global economy and indirectly affect Thai exports. SCB EIC expects export values to weaken by -1.5% in 2023 but return to growth in 2024 at 3.5%.

Thai exports in September continued to improve, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase. Factors contributing to this growth include a surge in gold exports, improved economic conditions in China, and increased prices of oil-related export products. However, overall Thai exports for the first three quarters of 2023 declined by 3.8%. Exports of agricultural and mining products increased, while agro-industrial products and manufacturing products showed mixed trends. Exports to China increased by 14.4%, while exports to the US dropped by 10%. The trade surplus reached $2,092.7 million in September, backed by high gold export growth. Meanwhile, imports declined, primarily due to a significant decrease in gold imports. The trade balance in September was a surplus of $2,092.7 million. Despite the limited impact of the Israeli war on Thai trade, continued conflicts in the Middle East may indirectly affect Thai exports through fluctuating oil prices and global financial market conditions. Thai trade conditions are expected to improve in the future, with export growth projected to weaken by 1.5% in 2023 but recover by 3.5% in 2024. Factors to monitor include monetary policies in developed economies, Chinese economic conditions, drought in Thailand, and geopolitical conflicts.

Thai exports in August increased by 2.6% compared to the previous year, ending 10 months of contraction.

Abstract The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in Thailand has unanimously voted to…