Abstract
Thai exports in September 2023 increased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, reaching USD 25,476.3 million. This growth is attributed to a surge in unwrought gold exports, improved economic conditions in China, and an increase in oil-related product prices. Exports of agricultural, agro-industrial, and mining and fuel products also increased, while manufacturing products declined. Exports to key destinations, including China, also saw growth. The trade surplus in September reached USD 2,092.7 million. SCB EIC expects that export prices will continue to improve in Q4/2023, with a projected 2023 weakening of -1.5% and a return to growth in 2024.
Summary
Thai Exports Continue to Grow
In September 2023, the value of Thai exports reached USD 25,476.3 million, showing a 2.1%YOY increase from the previous month. This growth was influenced by a surge in unwrought gold exports, a slight improvement in China’s economic conditions, and an increase in prices of oil-related export products. However, during the first 3 quarters of 2023, Thai exports totaled USD 213,069.4 million, registering a decline of -3.8%.
Export Trends by Product Categories
In September, exports of agricultural products, agro-industrial products, and mining and fuel products continued to increase, while exports of manufacturing products decreased. Exports to the US dropped significantly, while exports to China expanded by 14.4%. Exports to Hong Kong and Switzerland also experienced significant growth, primarily due to gold exports.
Trade Surplus and Future Outlook
The trade surplus reached USD 2,092.7 million in September, backed by high gold export growth. Import values improved, shown by a -8.3% decline from the previous month. Looking ahead, SCB EIC expects that Thai trade conditions should continue to improve, with an expected return to growth in 2024 despite potential external risks such as geopolitical conflicts and economic conditions in China.
