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Economy
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Exports performed well in May, supporting signs of continual growth in H2/2024 and 2025.
Thai exports in May 2024 saw a 7.2%YOY increase, with strong growth in agricultural and manufacturing products, particularly fruits. Exports to China and India were robust, while those to Australia and the Middle East declined. SCB EIC expects continued export growth in June and the second half of 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025.
Outlook Quarter 2/2024
Global economy is expected to grow steadily at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025, with US improving, Asia showing promising prospects, and Eurozone and Japan experiencing subdued growth. Thai economy will slowly rebound in 2024 and continue growth in 2025. Thailand’s policy interest rate is expected to be cut, while geopolitical tensions may benefit some Thai industries.
SCB EIC expects MPC to start the policy rate cut in Q4
The MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.5%, with one member voting for a cut. They believe the current rate supports economic stability. Economic growth projections remain steady at 2.6% and 3.0% for 2024 and 2025, while inflation is expected to increase slightly.
