Economy

Despite a modest 1.7% year-on-year growth in Q4/2023, the Thai economy struggled with challenges such as a decline in public consumption and investment. SCB EIC anticipates higher growth in Q1/2024, driven by robust private consumption and a resurgence in exports. However, a slow recovery is expected in 2024 due to various risks and limited public spending support.

Thai exports showed significant improvement in April 2024, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase. Agro-industrial and manufacturing products were key drivers of this growth. Despite a trade deficit, SCB EIC expects further export improvement in 2024, although global trade volume forecasts have been downgraded, impacting the overall growth outlook.

SCB EIC expects global economy to grow by 2.6% in 2024, with positive momentum in Q4/2023. Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised to 2.7%, facing challenges in manufacturing sector. Forecasted rate cuts and inflation rebound in 2H/2024 will impact Thailand’s economic outlook and monetary policy.

The Cabinet approved measures to boost the property sector in 2024, including reducing transfer and mortgage fees for residential properties valued under 7 million baht. The revised registration fee reduction measure is expected to stimulate demand but overall market demand may remain sluggish due to household debts and high interest rates. Developers are advised to launch new mid-priced projects cautiously to avoid oversupply.