Abstract
Despite a trade deficit, Thai exports showed signs of recovery in April 2024, with a growth rate of 6.8% year-over-year, driven by agro-industrial and manufacturing products. Exports to key destinations improved, although imports also increased. SCB EIC expects continued export growth in 2024, driven by a global economic expansion, favorable export product prices, and improved manufacturing conditions. However, global trade volume may expand at a lower rate than expected, impacting Thai export growth. Despite challenges, Thai exports are forecasted to grow by 2.6% in 2024.
Summary
Export Recovery Signals Strengthen in Short Term
The value of Thai exports in April 2024 reached USD 23,278.6 million, marking a 6.8%YOY growth and a significant improvement from the previous -10.9% contraction. Excluding gold, exports surged by 9.6%YOY, while excluding gold and the base effect, exports expanded by a strong 3.8%MOM_SA. These positive indicators point towards a robust recovery in Thai exports in the short term, with the first 4 months of 2024 showing a 1.4% increase in exports.
Agro-Industrial and Manufacturing Products Boost Export Growth
Exports of agro-industrial products expanded by 12.7% and manufacturing products by 9.2%, driven by key items like automotive parts and computer components. However, agricultural and mining products faced contractions, affecting overall export growth in April.
Expectations for Continued Export Improvement
The SCB EIC anticipates positive growth in Thai exports for 2024, fueled by a stronger global economy and favorable export product prices. Despite challenges like trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions, exports are projected to expand, contributing to economic recovery in Thailand for the year.
