The Latest: The most recent data by the Philippines Department of Tourism in April 2024 indicate that the market had 1.6mn tourist arrivals in Q1 2024. The market’s top five source markets over the Q1 2024 period were South Korea, the US, Mainland China, Japan and Australia.
Implications: The data from Philippines’ Department of Tourism indicate that the market’s post pandemic recovery remains underway. The Philippines’ 1.6mn tourist arrivals in Q1 2024 were 21.3% y-o-y higher than the 1.3mn tourist arrivals in Q1 2023. South Korea was Philippines’ largest source market over Q1 2024 with 458,619 arrivals, making up 26.0% of tourist arrivals. This was followed by the US and Mainland China in second and third place respectively with 264,690 (16.9% of tourist arrivals) and 109,568 (7.0% of total arrivals) arrivals over Q1 2024. The top five source markets were completed by fifth placed Japan with 105,347 arrivals in Q1 2024 while Australia ranked fifth with 70,601 arrivals.
We forecast Philippines’ tourist arrivals to grow by 32.6% y-o-y in 2024 to reach 6.6mn, up from the 5.0mn arrivals in 2023. The 2024 arrivals will be at 81.0% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019 (8.2mn arrivals). The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in Philippines’ arrivals contracting by 82.9% y-o-y in 2020, dropping to 1.4mn due to the shuttering of borders. We forecast the Philippines’ arrivals to continue to increase over the remainder of our medium-term forecast period fully recovering in 2025 as they reach 8.3mn, rising above the pre-pandemic level in 2019. In 2028, we forecast Philippines’ arrivals to reach a projected 9.4mn which is an average annual growth rate of 14.0% y-o-y over our 2024-2028 forecast period.
