Key View

  • Our short-term outlook for vehicle sales in Thailand has turned negative as stricter loan requirements and sluggish economic growth weigh on vehicle sales in 2024.
  • The pick-up truck segment will be most impacted by more stringent loan criteria, generating headwinds to the overall commercial vehicle segment.
  • Stricter lending criteria are expected to hinder the rate of EV adoption, which, in turn, will affect EV sales. Additionally, reduced incentives for consumers are poised to further dampen the sales of electric vehicles.

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Thai exports grew in November, albeit at a slower pace than imports.

Thai exports in November 2023 increased by 4.9%YOY, but this growth is mainly due to the low base effect from the previous year. Exports of key products and to key destinations improved, but the trade deficit continued. SCB EIC expects 2023 exports to drop by -1.5%YOY and to improve in 2024.

SCB EIC expects a slower growth momentum for Thai economy, underweighting recovery in 2024.

Despite a modest 1.7% year-on-year growth in Q4/2023, the Thai economy struggled with challenges such as a decline in public consumption and investment. SCB EIC anticipates higher growth in Q1/2024, driven by robust private consumption and a resurgence in exports. However, a slow recovery is expected in 2024 due to various risks and limited public spending support.