Key View
- We have revised down Thailand’s medical device market forecast to reflect ongoing trade uncertainty, particularly related to US tariffs, as well as persistent political instability.
- Thailand’s political environment will continue to heighten market uncertainty and could deter investment from multinational medical device manufacturers.
- Despite current challenges, Thailand is expected to maintain its position as a leading medical device producer in the ASEAN region.
We have revised down Thailand’s medical device market forecast, reflecting the impact of US tariff uncertainty and persistent political instability. We now project the market to grow at a 2024-2029 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% in local currency and 4.7% in US dollar terms, compared to previous projections of 6.9% and 5.4% respectively. By 2029, market sales are expected to reach THB109.2bn (USD2.8bn), with consumables, diagnostic imaging and other devices making up the largest shares. As of July 2025, the US government maintained a 36% tariff rate on Thai exports, following President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for tariff negotiations to August 1. While our Country Risk team believes Thai policymakers may ultimately be able to secure a reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate, uncertainty remains and real GDP growth is still forecast to slow sharply. In the meantime, tariffs will increase export costs and reduce the competitiveness of Thai products in the US market, which accounts for a quarter of Thailand’s medical device exports. This challenging trade environment, combined with ongoing domestic political instability, is expected to weigh on market expansion over our forecast period.
Thailand’s medical device market, once poised for significant growth, faces challenges due to trade uncertainty and ongoing political instability. These factors have prompted a downward revision of forecasts, reflecting a complex landscape for investors and manufacturers. The discord has led to decreased investor confidence, stalling key projects and collaborations that were expected to boost the sector’s expansion.
Trade uncertainty, particularly in the broader global context, has disrupted supply chains, affecting both imports and exports of medical devices. Delays and trade barriers have increased costs and introduced complexities in accessing advanced technologies. This has impacted the availability of cutting-edge medical equipment, crucial for maintaining high healthcare standards and fostering innovation within the Thai market.
Political instability further complicates the scenario, affecting policy consistency and creating an unpredictable business environment. This instability deters long-term investments and makes strategic planning challenging for companies. As stakeholders navigate these uncertainties, there is an urgent need for stable governance and clear policies to stimulate growth and restore confidence in Thailand’s medical device market.
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