Abstract
Thai exports in December 2023 showed signs of recovery with a 4.7% increase year-on-year, largely driven by gold exports. However, excluding gold, export growth dropped to 3% year-on-year. Various product categories saw expansion except for agricultural products. Exports to key destinations like Europe contracted due to factors like attacks by Houthi rebels. While the trade balance in December saw a surplus, the overall 2023 trade balance remained at a deficit. SCB EIC expects exports to continue improving in 2024, but warns of risks from global supply chain disruptions caused by events like the Houthi attacks and the Panama Canal drought.
Summary
Thai Exports Showing Recovery Amid Unclear Trajectory
The value of Thai exports in December 2023 reached USD 22,791.6 million, marking 5 consecutive months of growth. Gold exports played a significant role in this performance, contributing to a 4.7% year-over-year increase. However, excluding gold, export growth dropped to 3% year-over-year, highlighting uncertainties in the recovery trajectory due to special factors influencing export conditions.
Expansion in Various Export Categories in December
While most key product categories saw improvements in exports, agricultural products experienced a contraction in December. Notable growth was observed in mining and fuel products, manufacturing products, and agro-industrial products. On the other hand, agricultural exports declined, driven by specific products like fruits and cassava.
Impact of Key Destination Exports and Trade Balance
Exports to Europe saw a decline, with growing risks due to attacks by Houthi rebels, impacting delivery times and freight costs. Despite a surplus in December, Thailand’s overall 2023 trade balance remained at a deficit. SCB EIC anticipates further export recovery in 2024, supported by improving global trade volumes, trade-related manufacturing growth, and efforts to promote Thai exports through FTAs.
