Key View
- We expect extreme winter air pollution in Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plain to worsen over the coming years as key drivers, including crop burning, coal power generation and weather conditions, will likely intensify.
- In addition to its negative impact on public health, we highlight the adverse impact on the travel and tourism sector.
Coal will continue to supply more than half of India’s primary energy consumption in 2033, driving air pollution in Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Coal-fired plants will account for around 66% of electricity generation in 2033, while coal use in industry will grow as steel and cement production expands. We expect coal-fired power capacity to increase through to 2028, in line with the National Energy Plan for 2022-2027. As shown in the map below, many plants that are planned or under construction are located in areas already burdened with high levels of air pollution. To fight air pollution, as of January 2023, the Commission for Air Quality Management requires the complete elimination of coal and unapproved fuels in all sectors, including industrial and commercial but excluding thermal power plants inside the National Capital Region. There are currently eight cement plants inside the NCR that are affected by the ban. At the same time, there are plans to build or expand two coal power stations inside or just outside the region, which would add above 2100MW of coal power capacity within the vicinity of New Delhi and undermine the efforts to curb industrial emissions from coal consumption that would affect the city.
India, home to some of the world’s most populous cities, faces a daunting challenge with its escalating air pollution problem. The nation’s rapid industrialization, coupled with an increase in vehicular emissions and construction activities, has led to alarmingly high levels of airborne pollutants. Major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata experience annual smog crises that severely impact public health, exacerbating respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Experts warn that without urgent and comprehensive interventions, this pollution is expected to worsen in the coming years.
Climate change further complicates India’s air quality scenario. Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns contribute to the formation and entrapment of pollutants. Agricultural practices, such as the burning of crop stubble, add to the existing pollution burden, particularly in the northern plains. As winter approaches, a combination of cooler temperatures and high humidity levels creates a lethal concoction, trapping smog and resulting in deteriorated air quality indexes that threaten the well-being of millions.
To mitigate these challenges, India must commit to sustainable environmental policies and solutions. Enhancing public transportation, promoting electric vehicles, and investing in renewable energy sources are crucial steps. Moreover, improvements in agricultural techniques to discourage stubble burning, alongside strict industrial regulations, can help curb emissions. Collaborative efforts across governmental, societal, and individual levels will be essential in reversing the air pollution trend, thus safeguarding the health of future generations across the subcontinent.
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