Abstract
In June 2025, Thai merchandise exports rose 15.5% year-on-year to USD 28.65 billion, slower than prior forecasts. Computer products surged by 57.7%, while exports to the U.S. increased by 118%. Import growth slowed to 13.1%, with capital goods leading at 38.2%. Thailand recorded a trade surplus of USD 1.06 billion. However, risks remain for future export contraction due to U.S. tariffs and diminishing growth drivers. China and other ASEAN countries are negotiating trade agreements to reduce tariffs, impacting Thailand’s competitiveness.
Summary
June 2025 Export Growth Overview
In June 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports increased by 15.5% year-on-year to USD 28.65 billion, a slowdown compared to 18.4% in May. This growth was less than previous estimates and was impacted by a 0.9% decline in seasonally adjusted exports from May. Throughout the first half of the year, export values averaged a 15% growth.
Key Drivers of Export Performance
Several factors bolstered June’s export figures. The electronics sector significantly contributed, showing a 57.7% growth, despite slowing from higher previous month levels. Exports to the U.S. surged by 118%, while exports to China saw a slowdown. Additionally, gold exports remained strong with a remarkable 115.6% increase, although this was a decline from previous months’ highs.
Trade Balance and Future Outlook
Merchandise imports in June reached USD 27.59 billion, growing by 13.1%. The trade balance reported a surplus of USD 1.06 billion. While the forecast for Thai exports has improved for 2025 due to front-loading measures, rising risks from potential U.S. tariffs could negatively impact future growth. Thailand is urged to expedite trade negotiations with the U.S. to improve competitiveness in export markets.
