The MPC kept the policy rate steady at 1.5%, while SCB EIC anticipates another rate cut in December - Thailand PR News

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# The MPC kept the policy rate steady at 1.5%, while SCB EIC anticipates another rate cut in December

 The MPC maintained the policy rate at 1.50% amid economic challenges, revising GDP growth down to below 2% for 2025. It also projected low inflation, monitored deflation risks, and emphasized the need for accommodative monetary policy to support SMEs and economic recovery.

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  Published on 21 October 2025 #####  Author

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## Abstract

The MPC voted 5 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.50%, viewing it as accommodative to support the economy, while some members advocated for a reduction to aid recovery and address liquidity issues. Thailand’s economy is projected to slow, especially in the export sector due to U.S. tariffs, with GDP growth in 2025 expected below 2% YoY. Inflation forecasts were significantly revised down, anticipating rates of 0% this year. Financial conditions remain tight, particularly for SMEs, stressing the need for effective monetary policy amidst uncertainties.

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## Summary

## MPC Decision on Policy Rate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.50%. Most members believe the current monetary stance is appropriate, emphasizing the need for careful timing given the limited policy space. Conversely, two members argued for a rate cut to support economic recovery, especially for vulnerable groups facing liquidity issues.

## Economic Outlook and Growth Rate

The Thai economy is expected to slow in the latter half of 2025, particularly due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports. The MPC revised its GDP growth projections down slightly, predicting below 2% growth in the second half of 2025. Although the export growth forecast was raised significantly, the anticipated benefits for the economy may be limited due to increased import forecasts.

## Inflation and Financial Conditions

The MPC has lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 to 0%, projecting it will remain below target through 2026. Financial conditions in Thailand remain tight, particularly for SMEs, with declining credit demand and rising non-performing loans. The committee aims to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, balancing effectiveness amidst future uncertainties.

**Source** : [The MPC maintained the policy rate at 1.5%. SCB EIC expects one more policy rate cut in December, bringing the rate down…](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9939?rand=87536)

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