Abstract
Thai export conditions show signs of recovery, with growth reaching a 19-month high in January 2024. Exports increased by 10%YOY, driven by a surge in gold exports. Exports across key product categories and destinations improved, with agriculture, manufacturing, and agro-industrial products leading the growth. However, imports also increased, leading to a trade deficit. SCB EIC expects merchandise exports to continue expanding in 2024, although risks such as maritime transportation challenges and global supply chain issues remain. Monitoring of the situation is ongoing.
Summary
Thai Export Recovery Signals Growth
In January 2024, Thai exports reached a 19-month high with a value of USD 22,649.9 million, marking a 10%YOY increase. Gold exports significantly contributed to this growth, expanding by 194.2%YOY. Even excluding gold, Thai exports still grew commendably by 8.5%YOY. Despite challenges in maritime transport due to war conflicts, Thai exports showed signs of recovery with a relatively stable month-on-month seasonally adjusted performance.
Positive Export Trends in Key Product Categories
All key product categories saw improvements in January 2024. Agricultural product exports rebounded by 14%, while manufacturing product exports improved by 10.3%. Agro-industrial products grew by 3.8%, and mining and fuel products continued to expand by 7.1%. Thai exports to key destinations, including Europe, the US, and Hong Kong, also showed strong growth rates.
Concerns Over Trade Balance Deficit and Future Predictions
Despite the positive trends, the trade balance reverted to a deficit in January, driven by increased imports for production and investments. SCB EIC anticipates continued merchandise export growth in 2024, but at a slower pace. Factors supporting this expectation include improving global trade volume, strong performance in the manufacturing sector, and high export product prices. Various risks, however, could impact the export outlook, necessitating close monitoring and assessment.
Source : Thai exports welcomed 2024, the year of the dragon, with signs of recovery.
