Key View: Despite a forecasted deceleration, we hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Hong Kong, China over 2024. As base effects, which arose from the full reopening of borders with Mainland China as well as the wider international tourism market, begin to wear off consumer spending growth will follow a more stable trajectory over the medium term (2024-2028). Moderate inflation and a solid labour market will provide upsides, while the easing cost of debt servicing and Hong Kong dollar consistency further support our positive view.
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Outlook Quarter 4/2023
SCB EIC revised down 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% due to Q3 GDP, government spending, and lower tourist arrivals. 2024 economy to grow at 3.0% with expanding exports and private investment. Concerns about slow recovery, inflation, and global economy. Long-term issues include low investment and slow revenue recovery. Solutions proposed to address structural issues.
