Abstract
In September 2024, Thai exports showed signs of cooling with a 1.1% growth compared to the previous year, falling short of analyst expectations. A slowdown was seen in major export categories, especially in mining and fuel products which contracted. Exports to the US and CLMV markets expanded, while imports grew by 9.9%, resulting in a trade surplus. Despite surrounding risks, export values are expected to grow more than previously forecasted, driven by factors such as rising gold exports and the electronics cycle.
Summary
Export Growth in September 2024
In September 2024, the value of Thai exports reached USD 25,983.2 million, showing a modest 1.1% YOY expansion. This growth rate was lower than the previous month’s 7% growth and missed analysts’ expectations. The total export value for the first three quarters of the year amounted to USD 223,176 million, marking a 3.9% expansion.
Major Export Categories Performance
Three out of four major export categories experienced slower growth, while the mining and fuel category saw a significant contraction. Agro-industrial products, industrial products, and agricultural products all showed varying degrees of deceleration. Additionally, mining and fuel products experienced a steep 24.9% contraction, largely due to a drop in refined oil exports.
Export Markets Analysis
The US and CLMV markets saw positive export growth, while the Hong Kong, Japanese, and Chinese markets showed contractions. The US market had substantial growth at 18.1%, while the CLMV markets saw a slight deceleration in growth. Despite high import growth, Thailand maintained a trade surplus for the second consecutive month in September 2024.
