Abstract
Exports in Thailand decreased in June due to a decline in fruits exports to China, despite a boost from gold exports. Agro-industrial and agricultural products also saw a contraction, especially in the export of fruits. Exports to key partners such as Hong Kong, Japan, and China also decreased, while exports to the US and India performed well. The trade balance recorded a slight surplus in June, but remained at a deficit overall in the first half of 2024. SCB EIC anticipates an improvement in Thai exports in July and the second half of the year.
Summary
June Exports: Fruits to China Slowdown
In June 2024, Thai exports totaled USD 24,796.6 million, with a slight contraction of -0.3%YOY, primarily due to lower exports of fruits to China. Despite a notable boost from gold exports, excluding gold and base effects, overall exports fell slightly by -0.4%MOM_SA.
Agro-Industrial and Agricultural Exports
Exports of agro-industrial and agricultural products contracted in June, with fruits to China experiencing a significant decline. While some sectors like animal or vegetable fats saw growth, products such as sugar and certain fruits suffered setbacks. Manufacturing exports grew by 0.3%, but key sectors like internal combustion engines and electric circuit boards dragged growth.
Thai Trade Balance and Future Prospects
The trade balance in June recorded a slight surplus, but the overall 1H/2024 balance remained in deficit. SCB EIC anticipates an improvement in Thai exports in July and the second half of the year due to various factors like low base effects and recovering global economic indicators, projecting a 2.6% expansion for 2024.
