SCB EIC expects MPC to start the policy rate cut in Q4
The MPC voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.5%, with one member voting for a cut. They believe the current rate supports economic stability. Economic growth projections remain steady at 2.6% and 3.0% for 2024 and 2025, while inflation is expected to increase slightly.
SCB EIC expects a slower growth momentum for Thai economy, underweighting recovery in 2024.
Despite a modest 1.7% year-on-year growth in Q4/2023, the Thai economy struggled with challenges such as a decline in public consumption and investment. SCB EIC anticipates higher growth in Q1/2024, driven by robust private consumption and a resurgence in exports. However, a slow recovery is expected in 2024 due to various risks and limited public spending support.
