Key View
- Thailand’s introduction of biometric authentication measures for SIM card registration is positive for the government’s efforts to combat fraud and tighten national security controls.
- The downside impact is that the size of the Thai mobile market would shrink appreciably; if these processes prove sufficiently rigorous and effective at curbing multi-SIM ownership tendances, then market growth would likely be much more muted than previously forecast.
Thailand’s National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) is introducing new biometric authentication measures for SIM card registration to combat unauthorised SIM cards and online scams. The NBTC is also cracking down on unauthorised SIM dealers, with violators facing severe penalties.
We believe the development will certainly have an impact on our mobile subscriber forecasts for Thailand, given the country’s large base of prepaid SIM cards (over 50% of all mobile subscribers) that would be exposed to the registration mandate. Our current projections anticipate that 2025 will end with 94mn mobile subscribers but now we anticipate a 19% contraction that would bring the market to 77.86mn subscribers.
Our forecast is largely informed by the fact that the penetration rate of mobile subscribers per every 100 people should be brought closer to 100% once the SIM registration mandate closes. According to our current estimates, Thailand has a mobile penetration rate close to 140%. Post-SIM registration, we expect this to fall to 111% as lawful multi-SIM usage practices may still be widespread.
We note that our contraction expectations will be revised throughout the year, largely due to the unpredictable nature of SIM registration exercises, which in the Philippines resulted in a 25% mobile market contraction in 2024. Deadline extensions, amendments to the legislation and the intensity of multi-SIM ownership risk are all downsides to our projection’s accuracy.
The implementation of the SIM Registration Act in Thailand is poised to significantly reshape the country’s mobile market landscape. This regulation mandates the registration of all SIM cards with accurate personal identification details, aiming to enhance national security and curb fraudulent activities. While the act strives to create a more secure and reliable telecommunications environment, it is also expected to lead to substantial market shrinkage. As users who own multiple unregistered or anonymously registered SIM cards are forced to comply with these strict regulations, the number of active SIM cards in circulation may see a notable decline.
This legislation’s impact extends beyond consumer behavior; it could also affect telecom operators’ business models. Operators might face a reduction in revenue due to the decreased number of active SIM cards and increased administrative costs associated with the registration process. Furthermore, the stringent measures could slow the growth of mobile subscriptions and limit market expansion, affecting competitive dynamics within the sector.
In response, telecom companies may need to innovate and diversify their offerings to mitigate potential revenue losses. The focus might shift towards enhancing existing services, investing in customer loyalty programs, and exploring opportunities in digital services and enterprise solutions. As the SIM Registration Act takes effect, the transformation within Thailand’s mobile market underlines the importance of adapting to regulatory changes while striving to meet evolving consumer needs.
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