Key View
- Concessions made by President Prabowo Subianto are unlikely to be sufficient to quell the protests.
- The death of delivery driver Affan Kurniawan has transformed the protests from one focused on economic issues to a public outcry over police brutality, inequality and corruption.
- In the absence of deeper reforms, tensions will remain elevated and further protests are likely.
The protests in Indonesia began on August 25 2025 over perks given to lawmakers, including a monthly housing allowance of IDR50mn (USD3,000), nearly 10 times the minimum wage in Jakarta, despite the government’s plans for fiscal consolidation. The protests escalated when motorcycle delivery driver Affan Kurniawan was killed after being run over by a police armoured vehicle as he passed by a demonstration, transforming what had been a protest about economic issues into a public outcry against police brutality and the political elite.
In response to the protests, the government has cancelled the housing allowance and other benefits, apologised for MPs’ remarks and promised to investigate Affan Kurniawan’s death. However, this by itself is unlikely to quell the protests, with the death of Affan Kurniawan spurring demands for further reforms to address police brutality, as well as calls for higher wages and lower taxes. Student organisations, including the All-Indonesian Students’ Executives Body, have planned further protests on Monday.
We do not think this will present an immediate threat to President Prabowo’s power, as the protests are on a smaller scale than the 1998 protests that eventually ousted former President Suharto, which occurred amid the more severe Asian Financial Crisis. However, even if the protests de-escalate in the short term, they have exposed the underlying anti-government sentiment and tensions over persistent inequality between the masses and the elite. In the absence of further reforms, periodic flare-ups are likely.
Further demonstrations will raise pressure on the government to increase public spending or cut taxes to ease the cost of living, risking the government’s fiscal consolidation agenda and raising the likelihood that it overshoots its 3.0% fiscal deficit ceiling.
Protests In Indonesia Likely To Continue Despite Government Concessions
Recent demonstrations in Indonesia have highlighted widespread public dissatisfaction concerning a variety of political and social issues. Citizens have taken to the streets, driven by grievances ranging from economic inequality to environmental degradation. The protests have been notably fueled by younger demographics, including students and activists, who are adept at using social media platforms to organize and raise awareness globally.
In response to mounting pressure, the Indonesian government has attempted to diffuse tensions by offering several concessions. These include revisiting controversial laws and pledging more transparency in policy-making processes. Despite these efforts, many protesters remain unconvinced, arguing that such measures are insufficient and often seen as temporary fixes rather than genuine commitments to change. Skepticism persists, with many viewing these moves as strategic rather than sincere.
Experts suggest that protests are likely to continue, as the root causes of unrest—such as corruption, lack of accountability, and social inequities—remain unaddressed. The government’s ability to fully engage with its citizens and implement meaningful reforms will be critical in calming the ongoing unrest and fostering trust amongst the populace. Without substantive change, the cycle of protest and concession may repeat, underscoring a broader need for structural reform in Indonesia.
