Key View: Over 2024, we project tourist arrivals to Japan to fully recover to pre-Covid levels in 2019, building on a gradual rebound between 2022-2023. Over the medium term (2024-2028), we forecast arrivals will continue strengthening, with growth driven by an expansion in the pool of major source markets, increased tourism marketing campaigns and easing barriers of entry. However, overtourism will pose a downside risk to the Japan National Tourism Organization’s (JNTO) drive to expand arrivals to the market over the medium-to-long term (2024-2030).
