Key View
- Indonesia’s current account will likely remain in a deficit in 024. We forecast the shortfall to widen from 0.1% of GDP in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024.
- A weaker global economy will be the biggest threat to Indonesia’s export performance.
- The plateauing in Indonesia’s key commodity exports will also do little to support the country’s external sector.
We forecast the Indonesian current account deficit to widen from 0.1% of GDP in 2023 to 1.2% in 2024 (see chart below). This will be slightly larger than what most analysts expect – Bloomberg consensus shows a deficit of 1.0%. This will be on the back of our expectations for a weaker global economy. As such, we think that the goods and services trade surplus will narrow from 2.1% of GDP in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024.
