Key View
- We believe Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong personal rapport with US President Trump will count for little over the latter’s second term.
- Indeed, Modi’s emollient approach to ties so far has not stopped Trump from singling India out as a ‘major tariff abuser’.
- While we think Trump will eventually prove lenient in implementing tariffs, reciprocal or otherwise, against India, that will be because of Indian concessions, not Modi’s personal relationship with Trump.
Much has been made of the personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, established during the latter’s first term. Indeed, the two leaders feted each other at the Howdy Modi event in Texas and the follow-up Namaste Trump event in Gujarat, where Modi had long served as Chief Minister prior to becoming PM. Objectively, however, the positive personal relationship between the two leaders produced few substantial mutual wins beyond India being designated as a ‘major defence partner’ and agreeing to purchase Apache attack helicopters from the US. Indeed, the risk score of the bilateral relationship only inched down from a peak of 31.6 in September 2017 to 31.2 by the end of Trump’s first term.
Much more actual progress was made during the subsequent Biden administration. Despite some unhappiness over alleged state-sponsored killings of Sikh dissidents in North America, the bilateral risk score fell further to 29.6 just before Biden left office. In other words, Modi’s relationship with Trump has tended to be more symbolism than substance. As such, we think Modi will probably be mostly confined to a defensive posture, and is likely to have limited success in seeking carveouts for India as Trump pushes his “America First” foreign policy.
And that will not be for lack of trying. Modi congratulated Trump on the latter’s ‘historic win’ on X the night of Trump’s election victory. Modi was nonetheless left out of the list of invitees to Trump’s inauguration, one which included Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest person. The official explanation from the Ministry of External Affairs was that the standard protocol was for other officials than the PM to attend inaugurations. In the event, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar attended in Modi’s stead.
While in February Modi became the fourth world leader Trump received at the White house after assuming office for the second time, that came days after Trump had deported alleged illegal immigrants – in handcuffs – back to India on a military flight. And crucially, Modi was not able to dissuade Trump from implementing reciprocal tariffs against India. Trump would go on to brand India as the ‘tariff king’ for what he alleges are the highest average tariff rates in the world (not true), even singling India out on the topic during his State of the Union Address on March 4.
To be sure, Modi did not come away entirely empty-handed from that visit: The two sides have agreed to negotiate a bilateral trade deal by Q3 2025. But there was not much else of substance. For instance, a pledge to increase the value of bilateral trade from USD190bn in 2019 to USD500bn by 2030 was not backed up by concrete measures nor details.
Our core view remains that India should be able to limit any eventual tariff increase the US imposes on Indian goods. However, we underscore that the heavy lifting needed to get to that point will not be provided by the much-vaunted personal rapport between Trump and Modi, but the planned tariff reductions India will reportedly implement for US goods to mollify Trump.
The diplomatic relationship between India and the United States has seen various phases of evolution over the decades. During the tenure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump, there was significant attention given to the personal rapport they developed. Highly publicized visits, such as the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston and Trump’s subsequent visit to India, seemed to symbolize a closer bond at the leadership level. However, despite the cordial personal dynamics, substantial strategic outcomes and policy shifts remained limited.
Economically, while both leaders spoke of enhanced trade relations, the negotiations often got bogged down over tariffs and market access, stalling a comprehensive trade deal. The aspiration for more balanced trade was overshadowed by existing disputes. Strategic collaborations in defense and technology saw some progress, but not as significantly as anticipated against the backdrop of their warm personal ties. Other sectors, including immigration and intellectual property rights, remained areas where alignment was harder to achieve.
Ultimately, while Modi and Trump’s relationship appeared strong on the surface, the tangible benefits for Indo-U.S. ties were modest. Real-world complexities and differing national interests meant that deeper cooperation required more than camaraderie between leaders. Moving forward, the bilateral relationship will need continued efforts beyond personal diplomacy, to bridge political and economic differences, ensuring a more strategic and mutually beneficial partnership.
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