The Thai banking system is resilient, with strong levels of capital, loan loss provision, and liquidity to support economic recovery. Bank loans have grown 2.1% year-on-year, with a slowdown due to repayment from large corporates and government, transfer of consumer loan business, and loan portfolio management. Non-performing loans have declined, and net profit improved due to loan expansion and interest rate hikes. However, households remain vulnerable to elevated debt burdens, and businesses affected by rising costs should be monitored. Banks continue to support their debtors through debt restructuring.
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Outlook quarter 4/2025
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow only 1.5% in 2026, the lowest in three decades, due to external pressures from trade wars and competition, alongside domestic structural issues. Urgent reforms are needed to boost resilience and economic potential amid rising uncertainties.
Thai exports in September maintained a 2 consecutive months growth, with expectations of continued momentum in Q4/2023
Thai exports in September continued to improve, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase. Factors contributing to this growth include a surge in gold exports, improved economic conditions in China, and increased prices of oil-related export products. However, overall Thai exports for the first three quarters of 2023 declined by 3.8%. Exports of agricultural and mining products increased, while agro-industrial products and manufacturing products showed mixed trends. Exports to China increased by 14.4%, while exports to the US dropped by 10%. The trade surplus reached $2,092.7 million in September, backed by high gold export growth. Meanwhile, imports declined, primarily due to a significant decrease in gold imports. The trade balance in September was a surplus of $2,092.7 million. Despite the limited impact of the Israeli war on Thai trade, continued conflicts in the Middle East may indirectly affect Thai exports through fluctuating oil prices and global financial market conditions. Thai trade conditions are expected to improve in the future, with export growth projected to weaken by 1.5% in 2023 but recover by 3.5% in 2024. Factors to monitor include monetary policies in developed economies, Chinese economic conditions, drought in Thailand, and geopolitical conflicts.
