Abstract
In October 2023, Thai exports reached a 16-month high, totaling USD 23,578.8 million with an 8% YOY increase. Key products like agricultural, agro-industrial, mining, and fuel products, as well as exports to the US and Switzerland, showed growth. However, imports also increased, leading to a deficit in the customs basis trade balance. SCB EIC expects exports to revert to expansion in Q4 of 2023 and grow by 3.7% in 2024, but with various downside risks.
Summary
Thai Export Growth in October 2023
The value of Thai exports in October 2023 stood at USD 23,578.8 million, with an 8% YOY increase, showing 3 consecutive months of growth. Factors contributing to this recovery include the favorable low-base effect, sustained increase in export product prices, and a notable surge in gold exports, by 59.8%. Despite this, overall exports for the first 10 months of 2023 registered a decline of -2.7%.
Exports by Key Products
Exports of agricultural products expanded by 12.3%, and exports of agro-industrial products grew by 5.9% in October. Similarly, exports of mining and fuel products surged by 61.3%, and exports of manufacturing products expanded by 5.4% during the same period.
Trade Balance and Future Expectations
While exports improved in October, the value of imports increased as well, leading to a deficit in the trade balance. SCB EIC believes that exports should return to expansion in Q4/2023 and expects a further expansion in 2024, following support from various global economic factors and government initiatives to promote trade. However, various downside risks, such as climate change and geopolitical tensions, still remain. Regardless, the expectation is for Thai exports to increase by 3.7% in 2024.
Source : Thai exports showed continued resilience in October. SCB EIC expects positive growth in Q4/2023
