Abstract
Thai export growth reached a 16-month high in October 2023, with a 8%YOY increase. Key products such as agricultural, agro-industrial, mining, fuel, and manufacturing products saw growth, and exports to the US and Switzerland improved. However, there was a deficit in trade balance due to a surge in imports. SCB EIC expects export growth to return in Q4/2023, and to expand by 3.7% in 2024. Despite this, there are potential risks to the growth, including climate change and geopolitical issues.
Summary
Thai Export Growth Reaches a 16-Month High in October 2023
Export Growth and Key Products
In October 2023, Thai export growth reached a 16-month high, totaling USD 23,578.8 million with an 8%YOY increase. The value of Thai exports has shown growth for 3 consecutive months. Key products that experienced growth include agricultural products, agro-industrial products, and mining and fuel products. Notable decreases were seen in rubber exports, while manufacturing products returned to expansion. Thailand’s key export destinations such as the US, China, and Switzerland also experienced improvements in October.
Trade Deficit and Future Outlook
The value of imports in October stood at USD 24,411.1 million, leading to a trade deficit of USD -832.3 million. SCB EIC predicts that Thai exports in Q4/2023 will return to expansion due to favorable export prices and improved global economic conditions. However, this expansion may not fully offset the contractions witnessed since the beginning of the year, leaving the estimate for Thai merchandise export growth in 2023 at -1.5%YOY.
Outlook for 2024
SCB EIC expects Thai exports in 2024 to expand by 3.7%, supported by better global economic performance, sustained high export prices, and measures to promote Thai exports. Despite this outlook, various downside risks remain, including the impact of climate change, potential monetary policy changes in advanced economies, and geopolitical risks. As a result, the estimate for the value of Thai exports in 2024 is projected to return to an expansion of 3.7%.
Source : Thai exports showed continued resilience in October. SCB EIC expects positive growth in Q4/2023
