Abstract
Thai exports in June 2022 increased by 11.9%YOY, marking 16 consecutive months of growth. Excluding gold, exports grew by 11.5%. Agricultural exports continued to soar due to global supply disruption and government support. Agro-industrial and industrial products also increased, with computers returning to growth after 3 months. Exports to ASEAN and India improved, while those to China, Japan, and Hong Kong contracted. Going forward, export prices should continue to increase, however, import volume from China and Thai exports to China are expected to drop.
Thai merchandise exports in June accelerated from the previous month, marking a 16 consecutive months increase.
The value of Thai exports in June 2022 was at USD 26,533 million, increasing by 11.9%YOY (compared to the same period in the prior year). Such growth accelerated from the 10.5% expansion in May and marked a 16 consecutive months increase. Nevertheless, excluding gold, exports expanded by 11.5%, slowing from the previous month at 12.5%. In terms of the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth, exports improved by 2.3%MOM_sa from May. Excluding gold, the growth stabilized from the previous month. As such, during the first half of 2022, Thai exports enjoyed a 12.7% increase. Excluding gold, exports grew by 10.5%.
Exports of agricultural products continued to improve, while exports of computers expanded for the first time in 3 months.
Exports of nearly all key merchandise continued to improve, though some key categories saw contractions or stalling growth. Firstly, exports of agricultural products continued to soar by 21.7%, slightly increasing from 21.5% in the previous month. Such an accelerating growth was driven by both volume and price factors. In terms of volume, Thai agricultural output increased following adequate rainfall and water reserve levels in dams, as well as government support. In terms of price, global agricultural supply disruption prompted by the war in Ukraine and agricultural and food export restrictions in various countries inflated agricultural prices. The key products supporting growth during the month included fresh/ chilled/ frozen/ dried fruits, rice, and rubber. Secondly, exports of agro-industrial products grew by 28.3%, slightly stalling from 32.7% in the previous month. The key products driving growth during the month included animal fats, animal and vergatable oil, sugar, canned and processed seafood, canned and processed fruits, processed chicken, and animal feed. Thirdly, exports of industrial products grew by 6.7%, accelerating from 4.2% in the previous month. Products that ushered growth included aircraft and gold, which do not reflect actual export conditions. While other key growth drivers were aluminum products, air conditioner and parts, and steel, iron and parts. One notable merchandise, computers, returned to a growth of as high as 19.1%, marking the first expansion in 3 months. Such a figure signaled that the lingering chip shortage conditions began to improve in recent periods. However, exports of automotive and parts continued to undermine Thai exports according to slowing global demand from economic uncertainties. Lastly, exports of mineral and fuel products continued to improve by 73.7%, accelerating from 65.3% in the previous month. However, fuel export growth may slow next month due to lower global crude oil prices and refining costs following concerns that various key economies could enter a recession.
High-growth export destinations were concentrated in ASEAN and India. Meanwhile, various other key destinations signaled slowing growth.
Regarding exports by destinations, key supporting markets included ASEAN and India. Growth to such destinations marked a 6 and 12 months high at 35.6% and 77.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, exports to Laos and Myanmar continued to improve in June at 10%, down from 29.8% in May, and 15.4%, up from 12% in May, respectively. EIC anticipates that the low international reserves holding of Laos and Myanmar should have a limited impact on Thai exports as exports of refined fuel, the main export product, should continue to benefit from heightening global crude oil prices and recovering demand. Furthermore, factors, such as some cross-border trade activities will use baht as payment and advanced payment agreements should alleviate the conditions. However, Thai exports could face growing risks from the countries’ slowing economic conditions and regulations that prohibited imports of certain products, such as automotive in Myanmar. As for exports to China, Japan, and Hong Kong, exports to such key markets contracted. Exports to China dropped to -2.7% in June, after returning to an expansion at 3.8% in May and contracting at -7.3% in April. Such growth reflected concerns over China’s sluggish economic conditions, particularly the real estate sector, and risks from city lockdown
re-impositions. Furthermore, stalling global economic conditions could suppress production input imports from China. Going forward, export prices should continue to increase. Import volume from China and Thai exports volume to China should drop, coinciding with export growth to the…
